Masterplan
6. Risk
Each item has an owner and a close-out. The five that still block FID are in §1.4.
6.1Risk register
| ID | Risk | P | Impact | Mitigation | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Palo Duro fully subscribed / too small for campus | High | Caps BTM first power; campus needs a second lateral | Capacity ask day one; CNG/LNG as schedule bridge; do not size first power above what the letter supports; P2 gas is a separate FID. | Owner / midstream |
| R2 | Queue freeze hardens past 2030 | High | Grid upside slips; BTM path unaffected | Phase 1 is islanded. Do not underwrite utility MW before a study window exists. | Counsel |
| R3 | Blaine wells fail yield/TDS | Med | Import water or stay strictly dry (already BOD) | Test wells first; dry plant; MAG 49 AF/yr is not an evaporative budget. | Hydrogeo |
| R4 | Gypsum karst under halls | Med | Relocate halls inside Ω_build | Building-area SSURGO shows zero gypsum in mapped horizons, but bore anyway. Avoid DQG breaks already excluded. | Geotech |
| R5 | No carrier appetite for laterals | Med | Site is fiber-stranded; kills tenant | IRU conversations before tenant LOI. Two diverse laterals or do not claim dual-path. | Fiber |
| R6 | Posted bridge on US-83 / US-82 | Med | Detour or structure replace on LPT path | TxDMV route survey. Super-2 completes late 2028, before a 2029–31 heavy-haul window. | Logistics |
| R7 | Mineral SUA refused | Med | Accommodation doctrine; delay close | Runsheet + SUAs pre-LOI. Live permit API 42-269-32650 is in the block. | Landman |
| R8 | LPC relisted during status review | Low/Med | Seasonal windows, possible HCP | IPaC with drawn footprint before filing. Carry as Class-B scenario, not a clearance. | USFWS counsel |
| R9 | Collector sections have no closed ties (architecture) | Known | Losing one section drops about 33% of IT; not campus-black, not Tier III | 3 independent 34.5 kV islands are how 350 MW stays in catalog switchgear. Closed ties/ring before any Tier language in an SLA. | Electrical |
| R10 | Padmount 40-week vs LPT 128-week class | Med | IT live slips if xfmr/PCU not ordered | This design uses 3.75 MVA padmounts, not 345 kV GSUs, until Phase 3. Approved alternates. Order in P0. | Procurement |
| R11 | 800 VDC product / code gap | High if selected | Cannot seal; insurer pushback | 415Y/240 is the hard gate this phase. 800 VDC is Alternative D, not the basis. | Electrical |
| R12 | No FEMA flood map (Zone D) | Certain | Insurer and lender will not take desktop hydrology | Site-specific 2D H&H is a day-one workstream. Atlas 14 100-yr 24-h is 7.79 in at the centroid. | Civil |
| R13 | Expansive soils / corrosion | Med | Foundation and grounding redesign | Carey/St. Paul LE 3.4–4.5%. IEEE 81 resistivity before C26 ground grid. | Geotech / electrical PE |
| R14 | Cultural resources via Antiquities / §106 | Unknown | Survey delay if MMD/TIRZ or 404 nexus | THC Atlas is restricted. Commission the survey. | Archaeologist |
| R15 | Large-load security if a grid path is filed | High on grid path | ~$100k/MW at risk under proposed 25.194 | Campus does not file until Phase 3. A 350 MW filing is about $35M posted. BTM is the hedge. | Finance / counsel |
6.2Regulatory volatility
- Queue freeze hardens past 2030. Phase 1 is islanded. Do not underwrite utility MW before a study window exists.
- Mineral SUA refused. Runsheet + SUAs pre-LOI. Live permit API 42-269-32650 is in the block.
- LPC relisted during status review. IPaC with drawn footprint before filing. Carry as Class-B scenario, not a clearance.
- Cultural resources via Antiquities / §106. THC Atlas is restricted. Commission the survey.
- Large-load security if a grid path is filed. Campus does not file until Phase 3. A 350 MW filing is about $35M posted. BTM is the hedge.
Large-load rules (SB6, Abbott audit, proposed 25.194) are a scenario, not a constant. Behind-the-meter generation was not paused. Species status is a live review, not a clearance. Water jurisdiction for brackish-industrial inside Gateway GCD is an open legal question. JETI eligibility splits by plat: gas and campus may qualify; solar/storage will not.
6.3Supply chain
Padmounts run 8–26 weeks standard and 40+ custom. This design uses 40 weeks as the commercial default, 160 units, none in stock. PCUs 372 units, 40 weeks, none in stock. Aero packages: weeks if rented, 12–24+ months if owned, 3–7 years if someone insists on heavy-frame. The site derate makes this worse rather than better, because the fleet is 16 machines. BESS packs are the short item. Approved-alternates (or-equal) on transformers and PCUs are how the 40-week number stays 40 weeks.
| Long-lead | Lead | Quantity | Or-equal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padmount 34.5 kV / 415 V | 40 weeks in this design (8–26 standard / 40+ custom) | 160 | yes |
| PCU / 1,250 kW 415 V | 40 weeks | 372 | yes |
| Aero-equivalent turbines (owned) | 12–24+ months | 21 × 34.5 MW campus; 6 × first power | yes |
| Rental aero bridge | Weeks after permit + gas | First-power only | yes |
| BESS GFM | 6–12 months | 140 MW / 75 MWh campus | yes |
| Fiber laterals | 12–24 months ROW + build | Childress + Lubbock | no |
| 345 kV GSU / yard (Phase 3) | ~128 weeks LPT class | Not purchased this campus | yes |
6.4Technical
800 VDC is Alternative D, not the basis. Ring topologies are deferred.3 collector sections keep first-cycle duty at 26.5 kA, inside 63 kA catalog switchgear; they are not closed ties. Islanded dynamics (machine decrement, inverter control-law faults, transient stability) are outside this study and must be a procured study before relay settings or turbine purchase.
6.5Site
- Blaine wells fail yield/TDS. Import water or stay strictly dry (already BOD). Test wells first; dry plant; MAG 49 AF/yr is not an evaporative budget.
- Gypsum karst under halls. Relocate halls inside Ω_build. Building-area SSURGO shows zero gypsum in mapped horizons, but bore anyway. Avoid DQG breaks already excluded.
- Posted bridge on US-83 / US-82. Detour or structure replace on LPT path. TxDMV route survey. Super-2 completes late 2028, before a 2029–31 heavy-haul window.
- No FEMA flood map (Zone D). Insurer and lender will not take desktop hydrology. Site-specific 2D H&H is a day-one workstream. Atlas 14 100-yr 24-h is 7.79 in at the centroid.
- Expansive soils / corrosion. Foundation and grounding redesign. Carey/St. Paul LE 3.4–4.5%. IEEE 81 resistivity before C26 ground grid.
Atlas 14 100-yr 24-h is 7.79 in at the centroid. That does not replace 2D H&H on a surveyed surface. Cultural resources are unknown until THC/archaeology returns.
6.6What a licensed engineer will and will not sign today
Will sign, on their own work
- A sealed short-circuit and coordination study on a will-serve fault (or an island study with machine decrement and inverter control-law faults), not this compiler printout.
- Structural calculations on ASCE Hazard Tool values pulled at the centroid, with geotech.
- H&H 2D and a drainage report after Atlas 14 is applied to a surveyed surface.
- An air-permit application package with actual engine/turbine vendor data.
- A plat and an ALTA once the survey exists.
Will not sign
- This document. It is a Class 4 drafting aid and a single-run estimate.
- Uptime Institute Tier III (or IV) while collector sections have no closed ties.
- A contractual PUE or WUE until wells, weather file, and a tenant rack schedule exist.
- IEEE 80 touch/step without site resistivity (IEEE 81).
- A 345 kV interconnection design without WETT fault duty and service MVA.
- 800 VDC distribution as a code-compliant basis of design in this phase.
Not a sealed setThis site is a Class 4 study. It is not a sealed construction set.
Division of responsibility
| Party | Owns |
|---|---|
| Owner | Land close, Palo Duro capacity, fiber IRUs, offtake, incentives, air-permit applicant, PE hire |
| EPC / national DC builder | Pad, halls, MV/LV, dry plant, commissioning Levels 1–5, HSE, as-builts/COBie |
| Midstream EPC | 9.5 mi first lateral; P2 second feed and compression |
| Generation OEM / packager | Rental bridge then owned aero-equivalent + recip halls; BESS GFM / NFPA 855 |
| TSP / ERCOT (Phase 3) | 345 kV cut-in, large-load study, metering. Not on the first-power path. |
| Co-op (construction power) | Will-serve for construction only. South Plains EC or Tri-County EC; parcel-level confirmation is still outstanding. |
| Licensed PEs | Sealed S/C, coordination, arc-flash, H&H, structural, air package, ground grid (C26) |
| This tool | Class 4 drafting aid. run_id is an audit stamp, not a seal. |