Masterplan
5. Schedule
First 100 MW in the low twenties of months. The full campus follows the long-lead order, not the interconnection queue.
5.1Integrated schedule
Months from option day. Solid bars are the first-power critical path: title, air, gas, halls. Outline bars can slip. The grid lane is a parallel path.
Staged energization:
| Gate | P50, months | IT MW | What |
|---|---|---|---|
| Option day | 0 | 0 | Studies, capacity ask, IRUs |
| First fire | 17.2 | 0 | Rental aero on pad |
| First 100 MW IT | 23.5 | 100 | 6 turbines, section 1 halls live |
| 350 MW IT campus | 45.4 | 350 | All 3 sections live, 16 turbines |
| First utility MW (if filed) | 43 | n/a | Phase 3 parallel path, not the campus driver |
| Phase | Activity | Start | Duration | Owner | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P0 | Option + study access | 0 | 9 | Owner | Air permit + gas agreement vest tranche 1 |
| P0 | Water test wells + 72-hr pumps | 0 | 3 | Hydrogeologist | First study to start |
| P0 | Geotech + karst geophysics | 0 | 3 | Geotech | Foundations, C26 |
| P0 | Phase I ESA, H&H, cultural, AJD | 0 | 6 | Consultants | Bankable constraint matrix |
| P0 | Mineral runsheet + SUAs | 0 | 3 | Landman / counsel | Pre-LOI |
| P0 | TCEQ standard-permit application | 3 | 3–6 | Air consultant | Abilene-class weeks-to-months |
| P0 | Palo Duro capacity ask | 0 | ongoing | Owner / midstream | Gates lateral FID |
| P1 | Gas lateral 9.5 mi | 6 | 6–9 | Midstream EPC | Pipe ~2 mo delivery; no claimed RRC pre-construction delay |
| P1 | Rental aero bridge | 9 | 1–2 | Solaris / ProEnergy / VoltaGrid class | Weeks, not years |
| P1 | Owned 6× LM2500XPRESS block (first power) | order in P0/P1 | 12–24+ | OEM / packager | If not renting first fire |
| P1 | BESS first-power 56 MW / 25 MWh | 9 | 6–12 | Integrator | GFM, NFPA 855; campus is 280/125 |
| P1 | Pad, halls, MV yard (first section) | 6 | 12–18 | National DC builder | Prefab halls; power is critical path |
| P1 | Fiber laterals (both) | 6 | 12–24 | Carrier / FiberLight / Zayo | ROW + build |
| P1 | First 100 MW IT live | 15 | n/a | n/a | A tranche. Model P50 ~21 mo; revert if not by month 30 |
| P2 | Second gas lateral + compression + recip halls | first fire | 12–24 | Midstream / OEM | Palo Duro does not fuel 350 MW IT |
| P2 | TCEQ case-by-case NSR (campus fleet) | early P1 | 6–12 | Air consultant | 724 MW >> 360 MW standard-permit ceiling |
| P2 | 350 MW IT campus live | 24 | n/a | n/a | 3 116.667 MW sections; model P50 in the JSON |
| P3 | ERCOT large-load filing | queue reopen | 12–18 study | WETT / ERCOT | P50 energization ~2030 |
5.2Critical path
- TCEQ standard permit (first power) and NSR (campus fleet). Nothing fires without the standard permit. 724 MW campus is above the ~360 MW ceiling, so NSR is on the P2 path. Plan
- Palo Duro agreement + 9.5 mi lateral, then the P2 second feed. The fuel path is the long pole on BTM. Palo Duro does not fuel 350 MW IT. Uncommitted capacity is still outstanding. Pending
- Rental turbines (or owned aero if that path is chosen) for first fire. Rental is weeks. Owned is 12–24+ months. That is the first-power bridge, not the campus fleet. Selected
- Padmount transformers and PCUs (40 weeks). None in stock. Fleet size is in the equipment list. Order in P0. Calculated
- Fiber laterals. Not on the electrical critical path, but on the tenant-ready path. Plan
- ERCOT interconnection. Not on the Phase 1 path. Parallel 2030 branch. Record
None of the padmounts or PCUs are in stock. 160 padmounts and 372 PCUs to order at 40 weeks. Large power transformers as a class run about 128 weeks (Wood Mackenzie Q2 2025). This design does not buy a 345 kV GSU until Phase 3.
5.3Time-to-power as a distribution
First 100 MW of IT rides the standard permit, the Palo Duro lateral, rental turbines, first-tranche gear and halls. The campus adds the PSD/Title V major-source review, the second lateral, the full long-lead order, and all 3 halls. The grid path is a parallel triangular, not the campus driver.
What drives the tail: Palo Duro agreement stretching to nine months, TCEQ standard permit at the slow end (seven months), halls at twenty months from a month-6 start. Fiber can finish after IT live; tenants will not like that. Grid P90 is 51.3 months, a 2030 problem.
5.4The bridging strategy
Behind-the-meter rental turbines, once the permit and the lateral exist, fire in weeks. Owned aero is 12–24+ months. That difference is the bridge. Model pull-forward versus waiting on ERCOT: 19.5 months at P50 (43 − 23.5).
Convert to owned in Phase 2 when the queue and the offtake justify it. Stopping at 100 MW is Alternative B, and it leaves 250 MW of the gate unbuilt.
Behind the meter buys first power. First IT lands 19.5 months ahead of the grid path. The full campus still finishes within a few months of a grid date because construction and long-lead equipment set that date, not the interconnection queue.
Islanding starts revenue earlier and hedges a queue position nobody controls. It does not pull the full campus in sooner than a grid path would.
Long-lead equipment sets the date in 35.3% of draws and the transformer and switchgear market is the reason. Ordering slots is a day-one action, ahead of FID and ahead of the air permit.
Activities that set the campus date
Share of draws in which each activity set the campus date. The schedule is only as good as its longest pole, and naming it is the point of running the model.
| Activity | Share of outcomes it gates |
|---|---|
| hall construction | 53.8% |
| long-lead equipment | 35.3% |
| second gas lateral and compression | 8% |
| PSD/Title V air permit | 2.9% |
| fit-out after first power | 0.1% |
The PSD and Title V review runs 21.5 months at P50 and 28.3 at P90, and it is mandatory rather than optional at this emissions rate. It nonetheless gates only 2.9% of draws, because transformer and switchgear delivery at 28 months P50 and hall construction both run longer. Permitting is the risk people expect; procurement is the one that shows up.
5.5Permitting summary
Phase 0 study catalog: 30 studies, $1.6–3.7M Nine months; the first eight studies start immediately. Lead times below are placeholders until agency-sourced distributions replace them.
| Permit | Agency | Lead | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CWA §404 NWP 14/51/57 or individual Pending | USACE SWT (Red) / SWF (Brazos) | PCN 45–60 d; individual 6–18 mo | not started |
| ESA §7 / §10 Pending | USFWS | 30–135 d formal | IPaC not run |
| Air standard permit (Phase 1) Plan | TCEQ | weeks–months (Abilene-class) | file by month 3 |
| Air NSR (Phase 2 fleet) Plan | TCEQ | 6–12 mo | file early P1 |
| TPDES CGP TXR150000 Plan | TCEQ | NOI on filing | SWPPP before work |
| Gateway GCD well permit Pending | Gateway GCD | district cycle | after pump tests |
| Surface water right (if any diversion) Plan | TCEQ | TCEQ cycle | not triggered unless a surface take is added |
| RRC T-4 lateral Plan | RRC | months | Texas: no pre-construction delay claimed |
| FERC firm transport Pending | FERC | commercial | capacity MUST-ASK; tariff unfiled |
| ERCOT large-load (Phase 3) Record | ERCOT / PUCT / WETT | study cycle; ≥$100k fee | file at reopen |
| FAA Part 77 Pending | FAA | 45+ d | if >200 ft |
| DoD siting Pending | DoD Clearinghouse | 30–90 d | Sheppard/Dyess |
| TxDOT driveway Plan | Childress District | district review | CR-117 |
| TxDMV superload Pending | TxDMV | per move | route survey MUST-ASK |
| Plat (separate for campus / gen / later solar) Record | King County Commissioners Court | commissioners court | no county building code |
| Antiquities / NHPA §106 Pending | THC / ACHP | survey-dependent | archaeologist |
| TPDES / TLAP discharge Pending | TCEQ | months | after water chemistry |
| Private use network / GINR Plan | ERCOT | months to years | not this island; Phase 3 if export |